2021年,我们该投资比特币吗? – 财富中文网

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2020年可以说是比特币真正盛行起来的一年。
就在2020年,包括斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒和保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的对冲基金大佬不再对比特币持保留意见,转而采取行动买入。同年,从移动支付领域的Square,到保险公司MassMutual,再到科技公司MicroStrategy等等,这些公司纷纷将持有的数亿美元国债转化成了加密货币。
比特币的支持阵营终于能够与其反对者相抗衡。然而,沉寂已久(很长一段时间比特币的价格几乎处于横盘阶段,始终未能突破10000美元)的比特币价格目前在三万到四万美元之间徘徊,散户投资者也应该投资比特币吗?投资比特币的最佳途径是什么?
比特币支持派
比特币牛市与美元牛市背道而驰。社交媒体上兴起的“money printer go brrr”(“印钞机开动”。嘲讽疫情危机下美国政府为刺激经济没完没了地印钞票)蕴含了比特币最有说服力的投资理念。简而言之,比特币投资者受够了美联储。他们声称,为应对疫情封城、失业和潜在的企业破产导致的经济危机,美联储采取的激进措施将会导致美元贬值。
过去,如果看衰者担心货币贬值,他们会选择另类投资来保护自己的资产。作为一种已经经历几个世纪考验的贵金属,黄金往往会成为看衰者的避险资产。究其原因,除了可选范围有限外,黄金有史以来就非常有市场。比特币支持者坚称,比特币实际上就是“数字黄金”。比特币和黄金同为稀缺资源,不同的是,黄金需要开采,而比特币的供应量则受其软件代码限制。与其他科技产品一样,比特币承诺,随着时间的推移,比特币也会不断改善,甚至将来可能会逐渐成为一种有效的支付方式。
正如推特兼Square首席执行官杰克·多西所言:“互联网需要一种原生货币,而我认为比特币可能是迄今为止最好的证明。”如果说比特币将成为“下一个黄金”,即便排除了近期的价格上涨,比特币还有很长的路要走。摩根大通分析师在最近的一份研究报告中指出,比特币已成为黄金的竞争对手,从长期来看,比特币价格有望上涨至14.6万美元。
比特币反对派
并非所有人都相信这种说法。Euro Pacific Capital首席执行官、黄金多头彼得·希夫反驳称:“从根本上来说,比特币利用了人们的愚蠢和贪婪。”他认为,除了投机外,比特币标的资产一文不值。
数字货币投资公司Grayscale Investments首席执行官迈克尔·索南辛表示,市场表明情况并非如此。他指出,2020年比特币价格一路飙升,“与此同时,黄金投资产品也经历了有史以来最大规模的资金外流。”
Grayscale Investments鼓励投资者将自己的黄金储备配置成比特币。“我当然不相信这是巧合,”索南辛继续说道。他表示:“许多投资者已经意识到,比特币作为价值存储或对冲通胀资产要优于黄金。”
直切数字黄金正题
通过可靠的交易平台购买是获得比特币最简单的方式。散户投资者可以直接从Coinbase等正规交易所购买比特币。之后类似于在银行办理储蓄,将购买的比特币存放在交易所。更成熟的投资者不怕加密密钥(数字字母组成的字符串)被篡改,可以将持有的比特币从这类第三方保险箱转移到个人数字钱包,比如英国BlockChain公司就提供这样的数字钱包服务。
退休储蓄账户享受税收优惠也变得更加困难。为了解决这一问题,Grayscale面向一流投资者(机构和大户)发售其在2013年建立的比特币“信托”股份。早期所有者通过先锋领航投资、嘉信理财、Robinhood等券商在二级市场抛售所持股份后,散户投资者可以买入特币基金Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC)的股票。由于诸如Grayscale这样的变通方法效率低下,股价往往和比特币的实际价格存在出入。数字资产投资初创企业Arca的首席执行官兼联合创始人雷恩·斯坦伯格表示,溢价“对于不成熟的投资者来说是一笔巨额税款。”在比特币交易所交易基金获得监管机构批准之前,散户投资者必须要承担这笔费用。
为避免股价操纵行为和市场流动性不足,投资管理公司VanEck、文克莱沃斯兄弟的Gemini交易所等机构提交的比特币交易所交易基金申请仍未获得美国证券交易委员会批准。但加密货币支持者对此持乐观态度,他们认为,拜登总统任命加里·根斯勒出任证券交易委员会主席,这可能标志着比特币交易所交易基金即将获得批准。加里·根斯勒是前美国商品期货交易委员会主席、麻省理工教授,以精通加密货币闻名。
今年1月,被称为“基金的基金”的对冲基金SkyBridge Capital推出了一只比特币基金。首席执行官布雷特·梅辛表示:“如果让我来打赌,我认为比特币交易所交易基金会在9个月到两年内获得批准。最好在此之前买入比特币。”(财富中文网)
译者:唐尘
2020年可以说是比特币真正盛行起来的一年。
就在2020年,包括斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒和保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的对冲基金大佬不再对比特币持保留意见,转而采取行动买入。同年,从移动支付领域的Square,到保险公司MassMutual,再到科技公司MicroStrategy等等,这些公司纷纷将持有的数亿美元国债转化成了加密货币。
比特币的支持阵营终于能够与其反对者相抗衡。然而,沉寂已久(很长一段时间比特币的价格几乎处于横盘阶段,始终未能突破10000美元)的比特币价格目前在三万到四万美元之间徘徊,散户投资者也应该投资比特币吗?投资比特币的最佳途径是什么?
比特币支持派
比特币牛市与美元牛市背道而驰。社交媒体上兴起的“money printer go brrr”(“印钞机开动”。嘲讽疫情危机下美国政府为刺激经济没完没了地印钞票)蕴含了比特币最有说服力的投资理念。简而言之,比特币投资者受够了美联储。他们声称,为应对疫情封城、失业和潜在的企业破产导致的经济危机,美联储采取的激进措施将会导致美元贬值。
过去,如果看衰者担心货币贬值,他们会选择另类投资来保护自己的资产。作为一种已经经历几个世纪考验的贵金属,黄金往往会成为看衰者的避险资产。究其原因,除了可选范围有限外,黄金有史以来就非常有市场。比特币支持者坚称,比特币实际上就是“数字黄金”。比特币和黄金同为稀缺资源,不同的是,黄金需要开采,而比特币的供应量则受其软件代码限制。与其他科技产品一样,比特币承诺,随着时间的推移,比特币也会不断改善,甚至将来可能会逐渐成为一种有效的支付方式。
正如推特兼Square首席执行官杰克·多西所言:“互联网需要一种原生货币,而我认为比特币可能是迄今为止最好的证明。”如果说比特币将成为“下一个黄金”,即便排除了近期的价格上涨,比特币还有很长的路要走。摩根大通分析师在最近的一份研究报告中指出,比特币已成为黄金的竞争对手,从长期来看,比特币价格有望上涨至14.6万美元。
比特币反对派
并非所有人都相信这种说法。Euro Pacific Capital首席执行官、黄金多头彼得·希夫反驳称:“从根本上来说,比特币利用了人们的愚蠢和贪婪。”他认为,除了投机外,比特币标的资产一文不值。
数字货币投资公司Grayscale Investments首席执行官迈克尔·索南辛表示,市场表明情况并非如此。他指出,2020年比特币价格一路飙升,“与此同时,黄金投资产品也经历了有史以来最大规模的资金外流。”
Grayscale Investments鼓励投资者将自己的黄金储备配置成比特币。“我当然不相信这是巧合,”索南辛继续说道。他表示:“许多投资者已经意识到,比特币作为价值存储或对冲通胀资产要优于黄金。”
直切数字黄金正题
通过可靠的交易平台购买是获得比特币最简单的方式。散户投资者可以直接从Coinbase等正规交易所购买比特币。之后类似于在银行办理储蓄,将购买的比特币存放在交易所。更成熟的投资者不怕加密密钥(数字字母组成的字符串)被篡改,可以将持有的比特币从这类第三方保险箱转移到个人数字钱包,比如英国BlockChain公司就提供这样的数字钱包服务。
退休储蓄账户享受税收优惠也变得更加困难。为了解决这一问题,Grayscale面向一流投资者(机构和大户)发售其在2013年建立的比特币“信托”股份。早期所有者通过先锋领航投资、嘉信理财、Robinhood等券商在二级市场抛售所持股份后,散户投资者可以买入特币基金Grayscale Bitcoin Trust(GBTC)的股票。由于诸如Grayscale这样的变通方法效率低下,股价往往和比特币的实际价格存在出入。数字资产投资初创企业Arca的首席执行官兼联合创始人雷恩·斯坦伯格表示,溢价“对于不成熟的投资者来说是一笔巨额税款。”在比特币交易所交易基金获得监管机构批准之前,散户投资者必须要承担这笔费用。
为避免股价操纵行为和市场流动性不足,投资管理公司VanEck、文克莱沃斯兄弟的Gemini交易所等机构提交的比特币交易所交易基金申请仍未获得美国证券交易委员会批准。但加密货币支持者对此持乐观态度,他们认为,拜登总统任命加里·根斯勒出任证券交易委员会主席,这可能标志着比特币交易所交易基金即将获得批准。加里·根斯勒是前美国商品期货交易委员会主席、麻省理工教授,以精通加密货币闻名。
今年1月,被称为“基金的基金”的对冲基金SkyBridge Capital推出了一只比特币基金。首席执行官布雷特·梅辛表示:“如果让我来打赌,我认为比特币交易所交易基金会在9个月到两年内获得批准。最好在此之前买入比特币。”(财富中文网)
译者:唐尘
2020 will go down as the year Bitcoin truly caught on.
It’s the year hedge fund leading lights such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones abandoned their reservations and bought in. It’s also the year that corporations ranging from Square to Mass Mutual to the tech firm MicroStrategy converted hundreds of millions of dollars of their own treasuries into the cryptocurrency.
The Bitcoin boosters are finally rivaling the naysayers. But as the price of Bitcoin now lurches between $30,000 and $40,000 after a long period of mostly sub-$10,000 dormancy, should retail investors bite too? And what’s the best way to do so?
The case for Bitcoin
The bull case for Bitcoin runs counter to that of the U.S. dollar. The strongest investment thesis for Bitcoin is encapsulated by the “money printer go brrr” meme that sprouted up on social media to pillory government responses to the pandemic. Bitcoiners are, in short, fed up with the Fed. They claim the drastic measures the Federal Reserve is taking to combat the economic fallout of coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment, and potential business bankruptcies will devalue the greenback. (“Brrr” is the whimsical sound the Fed’s hypothetical money machine might make as it readies stimulus packages.)
Traditionally, when Cassandras fear currency debasement, they choose alternative investments to protect their wealth. Commonly they pick gold, a precious metal whose worth has, generally, stood the test of centuries. There’s only so much to go around and, for about as long as recorded history, there’s always been a market for it. Bitcoin believers maintain that their beloved cryptocurrency is, effectively, “digital gold.” Like the yellow stuff, it’s a scarce resource, except that the issuance is limited by its software code rather than earthly extraction. Like other tech products, the promise of Bitcoin is that it may improve over time, possibly even graduating to become a useful means of payment one day.
As Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey puts it, “The Internet wants a native currency, and I think Bitcoin is probably the best manifestation of that so far.” If Bitcoin is to be the next gold, then it’s got quite a runway—even after accounting for the recent rise in value. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase told clients in a recent research note that the price could reach $146,000 in the long term as it eats into interest for gold.
The counter case
Not everyone is buying that argument. “Bitcoin basically takes advantage of people’s stupidity and greed,” counters Peter Schiff, a longtime goldbug and chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital. He believes the underlying asset is worthless outside of speculation.
Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale Investments, a digital currency investing firm, says the markets indicate otherwise. He notes that Bitcoin’s price rocketed through 2020 “at the same time that gold investment products experienced some of the largest outflows on record.”
“I certainly don’t believe that to be a coincidence,” continues Sonnenshein, whose company is notable for having run a marketing blitz encouraging people to “drop gold” for Bitcoin. “Many investors have woken up to Bitcoin being a superior store of value or inflation hedge in their portfolios than gold,” he says.
Getting down to digital gold tacks
The simplest way to own Bitcoin is to buy some from a trustworthy entity. Retail investors can buy Bitcoin directly from a regulated exchange like Coinbase. They can then stash their holdings there, as they would a bank. More sophisticated investors, who aren’t afraid to juggle cryptographic keys—long strings of alphanumerics—can transfer the funds out of such third-party coffers to a personal digital wallet, like those the U.K.-based firm Blockchain helps people set up online.
Anyone who seeks the tax advantages of a retirement savings account will have a harder time. In the U.S., Grayscale offers one solution to the problem by selling big-time investors—institutional and accredited ones—shares of a Bitcoin-backed “trust” it established in 2013. Retail investors can buy shares in the so-called Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, or GBTC, after the earlier owners have offloaded their holdings on secondary markets, through brokerages like Vanguard, Charles Schwab, and Robinhood. Because of the inefficiencies of workarounds such as Grayscale’s, share prices tend to be out of whack with the price of the underlying Bitcoin. Rayne Steinberg, chief executive and cofounder of Arca, a digital asset investment startup, says that premium is “a huge tax on an unsophisticated investor.” Until regulators sign off on a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, that tax is something retail investors will have to live with.
The U.S. SEC, worried about the possibility for price manipulation and illiquid markets, continues to swat down Bitcoin ETF applications from the likes of VanEck and the Winklevoss twins’ Gemini exchange. But cryptocurrency enthusiasts are optimistic that President Joe Biden’s selection of Gary Gensler, a former CFTC chair and MIT academic with a reputation for crypto-savviness, to lead the SEC might signal a Bitcoin ETF approval—the industry’s holy grail—is coming. “Call it nine months to two-year time frame, if I were a betting man,” says Brett Messing, chief executive of SkyBridge Capital, a “fund of funds” hedge fund that launched a Bitcoin fund in January. “You want to own Bitcoin before that.”

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